Floridians watched and waited to see how strong Hurricane Idalia will be when it makes landfall Wednesday morning as a projected major Category 3 hurricane in the Big Bend, bringing “catastrophic” storm surges all along the Gulf Coast.
Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions started Tuesday along Florida’s west coast, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. update. Idalia is expected to make landfall some time Wednesday morning, as early as 5 a.m. or as late as noon, according to forecasters.
Idalia, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, was 135 miles west-southwest of Tampa and 205 miles south of Tallahassee and traveling north at 18 mph, as of 10 p.m.. Forecasters expect that the areas from the Aucilla River, which leads to the Gulf at Apalachee Bay, to Yankeetown will see the highest storm surges, between 10 and 15 feet.
A tornado watch went into effect Tuesday night until at least 6 a.m. Wednesday, covering at least 15 counties from Dixie County to south of Fort Myers in Lee County, the National Weather Service said. More than 7 million people are included in the watch area, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
Evacuation orders and school closures were in effect up and down the Gulf Coast. If the hurricane arrives during high tide, storm surge could reach 8 to 12 feet in some areas, Gov. Ron DeSantis said.
The National Hurricane Center said that storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet in the area between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown in the Big Bend region. Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka could see 7 to 11 feet. Tampa Bay could see 4 to 6 feet. Areas as far south at Chokoloskee could see 3 feet of surge.
National Weather Service meteorologist Steve Winn said the Big Bend area, which is predicted to be the hardest hit, will see surge start at 3 a.m. Wednesday. High tide in that area is around 2:30 a.m. In Tampa Bay, the start of the storm surge coincided with low tide at the mouth of the bay, he said.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee called Idalia “an unprecedented event” since no major hurricanes on record have ever passed through the bay abutting the Big Bend.
“Looking back through recorded history, NO major hurricanes have ever moved through the Apalachee Bay,” the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. “When you try to compare this storm to others, DON’T. No one has seen this.”
The storm’s projected path narrowed and moved a bit west late Tuesday afternoon. As a result, the hurricane watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key was discontinued, and the storm surge watch south of Bonita Beach near Naples was discontinued.
Seeing ‘rapid intensification’
The latest projections indicate that Idalia’s maximum sustained winds could reach up to 115 mph ahead of landfall. The system is traveling over water with temperatures as high as 87 degrees.
Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” the hurricane center said.
Idalia’s hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 160 miles as of 8 p.m. Tuesday. Idalia’s squalls continued in the Lower Keys and parts of southeast and southwest Florida on Tuesday evening.
DeSantis expanded the state of emergency to include 49 counties in Florida, up from 46 on Monday, readying for Idalia’s landfall. That’s about three-quarters of the counties in the entire state. The new counties are inland and east coast counties near Orlando, and include Orange, Brevard and Osceola counties.
Additionally, at least 22 counties issued evacuation orders in certain low-lying and vulnerable areas.
More than 30,000 utility workers were gathering to make repairs as quickly as possible in the hurricane’s wake.
The governor’s office said in a statement Tuesday night that the Florida National Guard is fully activated with 3,7000 guardsmen in position throughout the state and another 1,800 on the way for a total of 5,500 guardsmen prepared to respond before Idalia makes landfall.
The state of emergency for Idalia excludes Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. The temperatures in South Florida on Wednesday will be close to reaching heat advisory criteria, but slightly cooler, as Idalia makes landfall and the “outer spiral” rain bands from the storm arrive in the region.
After making landfall in the Big Bend region, Idalia will move near or along the coasts of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina late Wednesday or Thursday, the hurricane center said. Idalia could still be at hurricane strength by the time it moves over southern parts of Georgia and is it nears the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Tornadoes will also be possible in southeast Georgia and the coastal parts of the Carolinas through Wednesday.
Both Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster announced states of emergency, freeing up state resources and personnel, including hundreds of National Guard troops.
Hurricane warnings and storm surge
A hurricane warning remained in effect for the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A storm surge warning extends well beyond the cone, south past Tampa Bay to Englewood and north to Indian Pass.
The storm will bring heavy rain and flooding to Florida’s west coast and Panhandle, with 4 to 8 inches falling from Tuesday into Thursday. Landfall areas in northern Florida could receive 12 inches.
A total of 50 county school districts and nine state universities have closed campuses ahead of the storm, according to the governor’s office.
Several Gulf Coast counties canceled school Wednesday, and the University of Florida announced that it would close its campus and cancel classes, both in-person and online, Tuesday and Wednesday. The University of Central Florida canceled classes Wednesday, and Florida State University campuses in Tallahassee will be closed through Friday, the university said in a post on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
On the island of Cedar Key, in the middle of the current eye-track cone, Commissioner Sue Colson joined other city officials in packing up documents and electronics at City Hall. She had a message for the almost 900 residents who were under mandatory orders to evacuate the island near the coast of the Big Bend region. More than a dozen state troopers went door-to-door warning residents that storm surge could rise as high as 15 feet. “One word: Leave,” Colson said. “It’s not something to discuss.”
Not everyone was heeding the warning. Andy Bair, owner of the Island Hotel, said he intended to “babysit” his bed-and-breakfast, which predates the Civil War. The building has not flooded in the almost 20 years he has owned it, not even when Hurricane Hermine flooded the city in 2016.
“Being a caretaker of the oldest building in Cedar Key, I just feel kind of like I need to be here,” Bair said. “We’ve proven time and again that we’re not going to wash away. We may be a little uncomfortable for a couple of days, but we’ll be OK eventually.”
Workers at Toucans Bar and Grill board up the restaurant windows ahead of Hurricane Idalia near Clearwater Beach Tuesday, in Clearwater, Fla. Residents along Florida’s gulf coast are making preparations for the effects of Idalia. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
The National Hurricane Center forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season.
Idalia is the third hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Hurricane Franklin, located near Bermuda on Tuesday, strengthened into a Category 4 storm Monday as the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season.
In addition to Franklin, forecasters also were monitoring an area in the central tropical Atlantic for potential development as well as a tropical wave near Africa’s west coast that is expected to move over the Atlantic in the next couple of days.
As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, the system close to Africa had a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days, and the system in the central area had become a tropical depression with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph.
The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.
While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.
The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.
The next storm to form would be Jose.
Information from The Associated Press was used to supplement this news article.
