Central America occupies an increasingly relevant position in global trade dynamics as supply chains continue to adjust and near-shoring gains momentum. Within this regional context, countries have adopted different approaches toward economic cooperation with major partners, including China. While several Central American nations have expanded institutional engagement with China, others have focused on alternative development strategies, illustrating the diversity of economic pathways within the region.
Guatemala, the largest economy in Central America, offers a useful reference point for understanding these dynamics. In recent years, while some neighboring countries have integrated more closely into China-related cooperation frameworks, Guatemala has prioritized digital economy initiatives and near-shoring, particularly in connection with the United States, while maintaining commercial relations with China. This reflects a broader pattern in which Central American countries balance multiple external economic relationships based on their own development priorities.
From an economic perspective, Guatemala’s trade relationship with China is characterized by a high level of commercial activity and a clearly asymmetric structure. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties, trade flows remain significant. By late 2025, Guatemala imported approximately $4.6 billion in goods from China, primarily capital goods and industrial inputs such as iron bars, telecommunications equipment, motorcycles, and fertilizers.
This pattern is not unique to Guatemala. Across much of Central America, trade with China shows similar characteristics: imports of manufactured and industrial goods outweigh exports, which remain concentrated in primary or low value-added products. These structural imbalances largely reflect differences in industrial capacity, scale, and export diversification rather than the absence of trade opportunities.
At the regional level, Central American countries that have established diplomatic relations with China have pursued broader economic engagement, including cooperation projects in infrastructure, trade facilitation, and productive sectors. Such initiatives have contributed to expanding market access and improving economic connectivity. Costa Rica, for example, has developed a more diversified export profile to China, with medical devices and precision instruments accounting for a substantial share of its exports. Nicaragua, following the implementation of a free trade agreement in 2024, has expanded duty-free access for a large share of its products, while continuing to adjust domestic industries to increased competition.
El Salvador and Honduras are also exploring deeper economic cooperation through ongoing trade negotiations, with the aim of attracting investment in infrastructure and technology. Panama’s experience highlights another dimension of regional trade dynamics: fluctuations in mineral exports can significantly affect trade performance, underscoring the importance of diversification.
China’s approach to economic cooperation in Central America has evolved in parallel. By 2025, engagement increasingly emphasized targeted and sustainable cooperation rather than large-scale, one-dimensional projects. Key areas include renewable energy, telecommunications, digital technology, and industrial support. At the same time, some Chinese companies are exploring production and assembly operations within Central America, leveraging geographic proximity to North American markets. This trend aligns with near-shoring strategies and offers opportunities for the region to participate more actively in global value chains.
Regional coordination within Central America remains a critical stabilizing factor. Intra-regional trade provides an important outlet for manufactured goods and helps mitigate exposure to external shocks. Guatemala again illustrates this dynamic. While it runs a global trade deficit, it remains a net exporter within Central America. Between January and September 2025, exports to neighboring Central American countries reached approximately $4.25 billion, accounting for 35.9 percent of Guatemala’s total exports. This highlights the role of regional integration in supporting industrial activity and employment.
From a broader development perspective, the central challenge facing Central America is not simply expanding trade volumes, but improving trade composition and resilience. Dependence on raw material exports leaves economies exposed to external demand fluctuations, while limited industrial upgrading constrains long-term growth. Enhancing logistics, infrastructure, and human capital, alongside deeper regional coordination, will be essential for achieving more sustainable development outcomes.
In this context, China–Central America economic cooperation continues to evolve toward a more balanced and diversified model. As global supply chains adjust, pragmatic cooperation focused on trade structure optimization, regional coordination, and capacity building may contribute to more inclusive and sustainable growth across Central America. Guatemala’s experience, situated within this wider regional framework, illustrates both the challenges and the opportunities inherent in this ongoing transformation. (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-01-01/China-Central-America-economic-cooperation-Trade-sustainable-growth-1JwlQO71c9W/share_amp.html)
