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LATAM: A US Tax on Remittances Could Deepen Poverty and Increase Unrest in Central America and The Caribbean

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Cervecería Centroamericana S.A.
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Grupo Hotelero Islazul
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Centro Nacional de Cirugía de Mínimo Acceso de Cuba
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Servicios Médicos Cubanos

On 22 May, the US House of Representatives approved a bill imposing a 3.5% tax on remittances. The measure could be signed into law by President Trump on 4 July and take effect in 2026.

The majority of immigrants living in the United States come from Mexico, accounting for approximately 25% of all US immigrants, followed by immigrants from Asia (also around 25%), Central America (10%) and the Caribbean (10%). While Mexico has the largest share of immigrants, remittances play a relatively modest role in Mexico’s economy compared to many Central American and Caribbean countries where remittances are a critical source of current account revenues and foreign exchange reserves (see graph below). Despite the potential tax, remittance inflows are expected to remain relatively resilient and should not significantly affect current account revenues or economic growth in the region. However, this outlook could shift if the tax coincides with a high deportation rate or US recession (IMF forecasts economic growth at 1.8% for 2025 and 1.7% in 2026).

Moreover, a remittances tax would disproportionately affect low-income households locally, where remittances are the main source of income. In many Central American countries, almost 80% of remittances are spent on essential goods and services, such as food, housing, healthcare and education. As a result, the tax could exacerbate poverty, fuel political unrest and gang violence, and put political violence risk ratings under pressure. (https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/latam-us-tax-remittances-could-deepen-poverty-and-increase-unrest-central-america-and)

Centro Nacional de Cirugía de Mínimo Acceso de Cuba
Tigo
CUN-HAV Enjoy Travel Group
Los Portales
Grupo Hotelero Islazul
Herbalife
Agexport
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Cervecería Centroamericana S.A.
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Realidad Turística
MAD-HAV Enjoy Travel Group
Instituto Hondureño de Turismo
Barceló Solymar
blackanddecker
Irtra
AVA Resorts
Servicios Médicos Cubanos
Cubasol
Walmart
Revista Colombiana de Turismo Passport
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Barcelo Guatemala City
Havanatur
Henkel Latinoamerica
Tigo
AirEuropa
Intecap
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MAD-HAV Enjoy Travel Group
INOR
Grupo Hotelero Islazul
Servicios Médicos Cubanos
Instituto Hondureño de Turismo
Centro Nacional de Cirugía de Mínimo Acceso de Cuba
Los Portales
Nestle
Cervecería Centroamericana S.A.
Irtra
blackanddecker
AVA Resorts
Intecap
Barceló Solymar
Agexport
Walmart
Tigo
Herbalife
Realidad Turística
Cubasol