2020: The Worst Year in Tourism History, With One Billion Fewer International Arrivals
World tourism recorded its worst year in 2020, with international arrivals falling by 74%, according to the latest World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) data. Destinations around the world received fewer international arrivals by 2020 billion than the previous year, due to unprecedented demand collapse and widespread travel restrictions. By comparison, the decline in the global economic crisis in 2009 was 4%.
According to UNWTO’s latest World Tourism Barometer, the collapse in international travel represents estimated losses of US$1.3 trillion in export earnings, a figure that more than eleven times the losses recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. The crisis has put between 100 and 120 million direct tourist jobs at risk, many of them in small and medium-sized enterprises.
Much has been done to make international travel safe, but we are aware that the crisis is still far from over
Given the steady evolution of the pandemic, many countries are currently reintroducing stricter restrictions on travel. Measures include mandatory testing, quarantines and, in some cases, the complete closure of borders, all of which make it difficult to resume international travel. At the same time, it is to be expected that the gradual arrival of COVID-19 vaccines will help restore consumer confidence, make travel restrictions more flexible and travel slowly normalizing during the year ahead.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “Much has been done to make international travel safe, but we are aware that the crisis is still far from over. The harmonization, coordination and digitization of measures to reduce the risk of the spread of COVID-19 in relation to travel, including testing, tracking and vaccination certificates, are the essential basis for promoting safe travel and preparing for the recovery of tourism as soon as conditions permit.”
The latest survey among the UNWTO expert group shows diverse perspectives for 2021. Nearly half of respondents (45%) forecasts a better picture in 2021 than in 2020, while 25% expect similar behavior and 30% expect worsening results by 2021.
The overall outlook for an uptick in 2021 appears to have worsened. 50% of respondents do not believe that the uptick occurs until 2022, compared to the 21% expressed by that view in October 2020. The other half of respondents still see a potential uptick in 2021, although expectations are lower than in the October 2020 survey (79% expected recovery in 2021). When tourism activity resumes, the UNWTO expert group foresees increased demand for nature and outdoor tourism activities, with a growing interest in domestic tourism and “slow travel” experiences.
When do you expect an uptick in international tourism in your country?
In the longer term, most experts do not foresee a return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents target 2023, while 41% believe they will not recover levels from 2019 through 2024 or even later. UNWTO’s expanded scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that international tourism could take between two and a half years and four years to return to 2019 levels.
When do you expect international tourism to return to pre-pandemic levels in your country?
All regions of the world are affected
Asia-Pacific (-84%) – the first region to suffer from the effects of the pandemic and one that maintains the strictest travel restrictions – recorded the largest decline in arrivals in 2020 (300 million less). The Middle East and Africa in both cases recorded a 75% drop.
Europe recorded a 70% decrease in the number of arrivals, despite a small and brief uptick in the summer of 2020. The region suffered the biggest drop in absolute terms, with more than 500 million tourists declining by 2020. The Americas recorded a 69% drop in international arrivals, with slightly better results in the last quarter of the year.
For a complete overview of the latest global, regional and subregional data, see the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker.
Source: UNWTO
